5
Lucky Sibey
5yo Colt · 10-3
Cavaillon · Prix K9sp - Monte · 1m 4f 203y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +4.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-30 | Agen | 2 | +4 | ||
| 2025-10-22 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-04-11 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-03-01 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2024 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 31/08/2024 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/09/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/09/2024 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/10/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 17/11/2024 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 30/11/2024 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 15/12/2024 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |