8
Ivanovitch Est La
8yo Gelding · 0-0
Cavaillon · Prix Paseo Transport - Attele · 1m 4f 121y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Feurs | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Vichy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength86%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 10/12/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 09/03/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 01/06/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |