3
Memphis Ellis
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Cavaillon · Prix Emile Ribal - Attele · 1m 4f 121y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 2 | +1 | ||
| 2026-07-18 | Enghien | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Vichy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Chartres | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 02/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 09/08/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/05/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |