1
Mistral Lomig
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Cavaillon · Prix Emile Ribal - Attele · 1m 4f 121y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength40%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-01-08 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/11/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 08/01/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |