IvyArcIvyArc
4

Mona Lisa Ellis

4yo Filly · 0-0

Cavaillon · Prix Emile Ribal - Attele · 1m 4f 121y

#6

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Enghien 27/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 027/10C?C0 @ Vincennes 04/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 0C0 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 08/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m5f38y Std 08/03C?C0 @ Vincennes 24/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 04 @ Toulouse 09/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 09/014C0 @ Beaumont-De-Lomagne 29/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR - · 1m3f204y Std 0C0 @ Beaumont-De-Lomagne 17/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 1m4f148y Std 017/05C?C0 @ Agen 17/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 1m4f176y Std 0C0 @ Beaumont-De-Lomagne 23/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m4f148y Std 023/08C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Beaumont-De-Lomagne?3rd3rd0
2026-06-17Agen?8th8th0
2026-05-17Beaumont-De-Lomagne?8th8th0
2026-04-29Beaumont-De-Lomagne?13th13th0
2026-01-09Toulouse45th6th−1
2025-12-24Vincennes?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1024/1217/0523/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20242nd15/261%90%+0.29
04/11/20244th40/10%63%+0.63
08/03/20256th16/116%38%+0.22
24/12/20256th50/10%50%+0.50
09/01/20265th11/486%43%-0.43
29/04/202613th125/10%20%+0.20
17/05/20268th40/10%42%+0.42
17/06/20268th50/10%42%+0.42
23/08/20263rd66/10%82%+0.82