4
Chelsea's Dream
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 59
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |