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6

Climate Change

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 70

Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Charles Town 13/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 4f110y Fas 125 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 81 par13/12C8OR 81C8 @ Charles Town 10/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 6f110y Fas 126 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Charles Town 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 73 · 7f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 73 par28/02C5OR 73C5 @ Charles Town 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 78 · 6f110y Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Charles Town 29/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 77 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 77 par29/03C5OR 77C5 @ Charles Town 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 77 · 6f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Charles Town 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 72 par30/05C5OR 72C8 @ Charles Town 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 70 · 4f110y Gd 126 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 70 parC6 @ Charles Town 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 71 · 4f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 71 par15/08C6OR 71projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Charles Town?3rd1st+2
2026-06-28Charles Town?4th4th0
2026-05-30Charles Town?5th2nd+3
2026-05-09Charles Town?7th4th+3
2026-03-29Charles Town?1st-2th+3
2026-03-07Charles Town?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/127/0330/0515/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength84%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20252nd15/890%83%-0.07
10/01/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
28/02/20262nd4/179%75%-0.04
07/03/20265th11/893%20%-0.73
29/03/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
09/05/20267th7/282%14%-0.67
30/05/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
28/06/20264th4/179%50%-0.29
15/08/20263rd14/126%60%+0.34