7
Kelsey Hill Girl
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 50
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
61%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/11/2025 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 9% | -0.59 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |