8
Scat
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 48
Charles Town · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-09-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |