Callie's Dance

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 70

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

68%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +2.2

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	Ellis Park	?	7th	5th	+2	5.4
2026-07-19	Ellis Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-06-21	Churchill Downs	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -63.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/06/2026	2nd	33/1	0%	91%	+0.91
19/07/2026	4th	9/2	76%	63%	-0.14
22/08/2026	7th	6/1	68%	33%	-0.35