Capodost

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 71

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Kentucky Downs	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-08-06	Saratoga	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -44.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/08/2026	4th	2/1	89%	67%	-0.23
30/08/2026	9th	1/1	95%	27%	-0.67