6
Chamita
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 58
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength69%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +16.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |