J Z's Not Again

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 56

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-24	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-08-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-07-16	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength75%

Delivery trend +7.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/07/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	71%	+0.56
05/08/2026	9th	14/1	26%	20%	-0.06
24/08/2026	4th	25/1	0%	70%	+0.70