9
Joking Around
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 53
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +15.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 16/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |