11
Oro Estrella
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 7-12 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength10%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |