3
Speech And Drama
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 60
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |