Astronova

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 71

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-21	Churchill Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-09-23	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2025-08-28	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength56%

Delivery trend +20.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/08/2025	5th	7/1	63%	50%	-0.13
23/09/2025	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
21/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	43%	+0.27