Buckeye Favorite
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 65
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2025-10-05 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -24.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 05/10/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 26/11/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 64% | -0.27 |