Crawford
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 78
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 14/06/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 19/07/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 06/09/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |