14
Donna Strada
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 63
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength15%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -41.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |