Fozzer
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2024-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2024 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 07/03/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 16/04/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |