5
Quality View
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength67%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-01-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |