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10

Rockin Robin

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 91

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength67%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Kentucky Downs 10/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS10/09C6C6 @ Keeneland 15/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 89 · 7f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 89 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 06/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 91 par6/11C6OR 91C6 @ Oaklawn Park 27/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 91 · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 91 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 94 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 94 par8/02C6OR 94C6 @ Oaklawn Park 05/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 90 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Keeneland 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 94 · 6f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 94 par11/04C6OR 94C9 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 94 · 7f 118 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 94 par9/05C9OR 94projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-09Churchill Downs?8th8th0
2026-04-11Keeneland?2nd-1th+3
2026-03-05Oaklawn Park?2nd-1th+3
2026-02-08Oaklawn Park?4th1st+3
2025-12-27Oaklawn Park?2nd-1th+3
2025-11-06Churchill Downs?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0927/1211/049/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -11.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/20253rd10/147%78%+0.30
15/10/20253rd9/153%82%+0.29
06/11/20253rd14/126%71%+0.45
27/12/20252nd4/179%86%+0.07
08/02/20264th11/1094%57%-0.37
05/03/20262nd6/594%88%-0.06
11/04/20262nd2/598%80%-0.18
09/05/20268th10/382%36%-0.46