Winning Matters
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2025-12-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 36% | -0.54 |
| 17/01/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 24/07/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |