1
Coquito
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 93
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/5
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 1/14 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |