Cora's Legacy

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 81

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲1

Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.5

Today:

Class gap: -1.0

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-24	Ellis Park	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-06-14	Churchill Downs	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-05-08	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-03-27	Turfway Park	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-02-20	Turfway Park	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-02-07	Turfway Park	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength65%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/09/2025	5th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
15/10/2025	3rd	20/1	0%	80%	+0.80
20/12/2025	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
07/02/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	89%	+0.42
20/02/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	75%	-0.07
27/03/2026	5th	16/1	16%	50%	+0.34
08/05/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
14/06/2026	2nd	6/1	68%	75%	+0.07
24/07/2026	2nd	3/1	84%	83%	-0.01