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5

Evalina

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 73

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/05/2025 · OR 75 par5/05C6OR 75C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 76 · 1m110y Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/05/2025 · OR 76 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/09/2025 · OR 67 par15/09C6OR 67C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 71 parC9 @ Turfway Park 22/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 75 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 75 par22/01C9OR 75C9 @ Turfway Park 18/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f 125 · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 67 parC9 @ Turfway Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 62 · 6f110y 125 · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 62 par7/03C9OR 62C9 @ Churchill Downs 25/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 61 · 6f 125 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 61 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 24/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 68 · 1m 126 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 68 par24/06C8OR 68projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-24Churchill Downs?5th6th−1
2026-04-25Churchill Downs?9th11th−2
2026-03-07Turfway Park?5th7th−2
2026-02-18Turfway Park?4th6th−2
2026-01-22Turfway Park?5th7th−2
2025-10-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0527/107/0324/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/05/20254th16/116%40%+0.24
22/05/20256th25/10%0%0.00
15/09/20258th50/10%36%+0.36
27/10/20258th50/10%22%+0.22
22/01/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
18/02/20264th14/126%73%+0.46
07/03/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
25/04/20269th25/10%27%+0.27
24/06/20265th33/10%33%+0.33