4
Gypsan
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 85
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |