7
Little Dixie
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 73
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 17/04/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 27/07/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |