2
Stay Beautiful
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 70
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-01-16 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-11-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 16/01/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |