Birch Run
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-01-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 18/01/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 10/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |