Depencier

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 72

Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼3

Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-11-01	Remington Park	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2025-10-10	Remington Park	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%

▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price

Trend▼

Strength11%

Delivery trend -20.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/10/2025	3rd	7/1	63%	78%	+0.15
01/11/2025	3rd	11/4	86%	80%	-0.06