6
Lexico
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 57% | -0.35 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 30/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |