Twisted Viper
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 65
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2025-03-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 02/05/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 18/08/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |