5
Watershed Moment
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 65
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 17/02/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |