4
Mood Spin
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +31.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |