13
Placing Blame
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 71
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
Delivery trend +10.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |