Barbratina
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-03-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2024-06-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2024 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 02/03/2024 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |
| 06/04/2024 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 01/06/2024 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/03/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 03/05/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |