5
Country Club
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2015 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 24/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 19/10/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |