Final Shipman
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 85
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 31/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |