Honor Azteca

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-23	Colonial Downs	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-07-09	Colonial Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-05	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-04-29	Churchill Downs	?	11th	11th	0	1.0
2026-04-09	Keeneland	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-02-27	Fair Grounds	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength54%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/12/2025	7th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
09/01/2026	3rd	11/2	71%	67%	-0.04
30/01/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
27/02/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	86%	+0.20
09/04/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
29/04/2026	11th	14/1	26%	9%	-0.17
05/06/2026	3rd	4/1	79%	67%	-0.12
09/07/2026	6th	8/1	58%	29%	-0.29
23/07/2026	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13