4
Keen Gal
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength79%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 13/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |