Our Shenanigan
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |