Wildest Problem
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 78
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Lone Star | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Lone Star | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lone Star | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +21.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |