1
Zafyre
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 01/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 09/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |