Belle Of The Barn

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 89

Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 7f

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-31	Colonial Downs	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8
2026-06-14	Churchill Downs	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-03-25	Turfway Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-02-21	Turfway Park	?	7th	5th	+2	5.4
2026-01-22	Turfway Park	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▼

Strength33%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/01/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
21/02/2026	7th	25/1	0%	40%	+0.40
25/03/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	86%	+0.15
14/06/2026	8th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
31/07/2026	9th	12/1	37%	20%	-0.17
06/09/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	83%	+0.46