4
Carol's Melody
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 87
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 01/03/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |