3
Full Dolly
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |