In For A Spin
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 81
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2024 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |