Late To The Game
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 28/02/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/09/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 26/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |